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Energy: the Next Twenty Years
The Nuclear Energy Policy Study (NEPS) group, twenty independent experts drawn from divers professional and occupational backgrounds was put together and a year later, in March 1977, issued a report , Nuclear Power Issues and Choices. The study was successful, it did improve the tone and sharpened the content of the nucelar debate, with facts and analysis it illuminated public policies and provided a reference point for the continuing examination of complex issues many of which have still not been resolved.Accordingly the Foundation early in 1978 funded another study group, this one to assess the future of coal. But it recognized that it could not deal with coal in a vacuum. A comprehensive framework was required that compared coal to other energy sources in a consistent and comprehensive manner. The time frame of the study was to be the next two decades. This was seen as the transition not a transition to a new stable condition, but to aset of new tendencies, from cheaper, abundant, reliable energy to costlier, scarcer, and more chancy energy supply, from principal reliance on conventional oil and gas to reliance on coal, nucelar, unconventional oil and gas, and renewable sources from taking energy for granted to paying attention to it. The Foundation also specified that the study group complete its work within a year and a half, a demand designed to freshness of whatever the group might say, and to terminate the deliberations before the group ran out of steam.Redares may wonder how, confronted by so many complex and frequently divisive issues. The simple answer is that throuhghout our deliberations, substantial differences emerged in judgment and in emphasis, on the exact wording of a recommendation, and on the need to include or ignore a specific issue. It is fair to say that each member of the group would probably have written a somewhat different report. Yet in the end, no member felt sufficiently critical of the thrust of the report to withold consent. At the same time, all realized that this broad consensus leaves everyone free to continue to express his own views, if they conflict with what is found inthese pages. rnTime alone made this infeasible. Thus , the chapters differ in format, style, length, and degree of technically. In an enterprise of this kind, halfway between of essays and a oce through narative, a point of diminishing returns is reached in seeking conformity and symmmetry. rnAny book dealing with issues and policy choices spanning a period of years or decades ahead, and especially one written on energy in 1979, courts the risk of seeming out of touch with whatever might be the crises topic at the time of publication. But keeping readers abreast of day to day developments is the job of the press. Books must focus no longer range issues that may look a little different from the perspective of one month or year to another but that are not essentially altered by the headlines of the dqay. Above all, government and the public alike are inescapably preoccupied with today’s crisis, at the expense of the vitallyimportant task of thinking about and fahioning policies for the longer run.rnWithout dissent, special measures to promote conservation would have been endorsed, and with misgiving and with some dissent, a more determined though not more massive affort to move ahead on a supply alternative program, including but not limited to synthetic fuel plants, such as adumbrated in Chapters 6 and 15. rn
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