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the Social Costs of Solar Energy: a Study of Photovoltaic Energy Systems
Social costs are associated with all commonly used electrical energy sources. These costs arise from effects on public and occupational health and on the environment; they also originate in a number of important effects on social and political proprocesses. The use of coal, fro example, not only effects the health of miners and the public and the environment (throughout such impacts as mine drainage, acid rain, and a possible increasein global CO2 levels) but also raises other national and even international political and social issues. Among these are conflicts resulting from power plant siting, from inequities between coal-producing and coal-consuming regions, and from the movement of pollutants from coal combustion across state or national boundaries. For nuclear power the mix of such impacts is different, but significant impacts certainly exist. Thus, for example, while nucelar power probably involves lower average impacts on health and environment than coal under normal operating conditions, there are countervailing negative effects from the possibility of nucelar accidents, from the difficulties in managing the disposal of wastes, and from the international security threat of nuclar weapons proliferation. The impacts associated with conventional electrical energy sources, despite decades of use, are still highly uncertain in their identity and magnitude; experience suggests that we have not yet become aware of the extent to which even conventional energy technologies involve significant social costs. The existence of substantial social costs (known and possible) associated with conventional technologies provide incentive to develop new energy technologies characterized by demonstarbly small impacts on human health and the environment or, perhaps, by contributing less to the causes of social and political conflict than do conventional sources. In the popular mind, solar energy technologies have come to be associated with precisely these virtues. Among the solar technologies, thermal electric and photovoltaic generation of electricity are those most often though of as substitutable for current electrical generation systems. While popular conseptions undoubteadly play a role in the initial acceptance of a new technology, current policy decisions, and the long-termsuccess of a new technology, must rest on critical evaluation of the social costs associated with that technology, as compared with conventional alternatives. Given large uncertainties about these alternatives, and the even larger uncertainties associated with a yet immature new technology, this is indeed difficult. It is not, however, impossible to make such evaluations, at least qualitatively, and in some instances, quantitavely. In this study present a preliminary social cost evaluation of photovoltaic technologies, emphasizing qualitative comparisons with electricity generation systems based on coal (and, in some cases, nuclear fuels). Where possible and important in this study, quantitative assessment of photovoltaic impacts will be performed. These typically will be rough calculations intended to establish relative priorities in policy issues. In many cases, calculations will be performed in the spirit of upper bound, or worst case situations. Calculations of thi type are of great value if it can be shown that the maximum possible impacts of new technology are well below the minimum impacts known to be associated with conventional sources of electricity. The value of this type of comparison is especially great because the large uncertainties currently involved in evaluation of conventional technologies, especially coal, lead to a perceived (and very likely also areal) probability of increasingly high social costs. Thus, if thereby established a basis for evaluating the value of that technology in avoiding not only the currently known costs of conventional sources, but also the risk of currently unknown, but potentially high, costs which might eventually be found to be associated with them. It should be remembered, however, that upper bound calculations probably overstate the true impacts of photovoltaics and should be used only for the policy purpose indicated. Carefuland comprehensive policy issues and for establishing the regulatory basis on which photovoltaic devices will be manufactured and used.In subsequent chapters, it shall deal with the first three of these catagories, on a comparative basis, for photovoltaic technologies and applications. With respect to the fourth category. The broader sociopolitical issues remain to be addressed in future research.
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