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Downstream oil supply security in China: Policy implications from quantifying the impact of oil import disruption

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Unavoidable disruptions in the international oil supply create heavy pressures on the downstream oil market for
oil-importing countries, especially China, whose high dependency on imported oil makes its downstream oil
supply security an urgent issue. However, little attention has been paid to the supply security of the downstream
oil industry with respect to dealing with import disruptions. Here, an integrated quantitative assessment
framework is established to identify the impact of crude oil import disruptions on downstream oil supply security
from the supply chain perspective. The dynamic scheduling process of the downstream oil supply chain under 72
import disruption scenarios is simulated by coupling a mathematical programming model with Latin hypercube
sampling. The improved grey incidence evaluation method is applied for the comprehensive assessment of
province-level and region-level oil product supply security based on the simulation results. The case of 31
provincial-level administrative regions in China in 2017 and 2020 is analysed as an example to demonstrate the
framework. We find significant differences among provinces. The southwest and eastern coastal areas of China
are vulnerable to potential oil supply disruptions, while the northwest China enjoys high supply security. Based
on the results of this paper, policy implications are provided for the Chinese government. The design framework
is not case-specific and can be applied for the quantitative assessment of other countries or regions.

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Ketersediaan

EJ2070

My Library

Tersedia

Informasi Detil

Judul Seri

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No. Panggil

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Penerbit

Elsevier Ltd. : ., 2020

Deskripsi Fisik

17 p.

Bahasa

English

ISBN/ISSN

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Klasifikasi

NONE

Tipe Isi

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Tipe Media

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Tipe Pembawa

online resource

Edisi

Energy Policy 136 (2020) 111077

Subyek

-

Info Detil Spesifik

Ejurnal

Pernyataan Tanggungjawab

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Versi lain/terkait

Lampiran Berkas

Komentar

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