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Effects of long-term tariff regulation on investments under low credibility of rules: Rate-of-return and price cap in Russian electricity grids
The transition from a short-term cost-plus tariff regulation to either a long-term rate-of-return or long-term price
cap regulation in Russia started in 2009 and was completed in 2012, causing substantial changes in investment
over the course of the reform. We estimate panel data of 46 Russian electricity distribution entities with a dynamic
investment model using the system generalized method of moments and addressing potential endogeneity
issues. We show that, despite the noncredible regulatory policy, the transition from short-to long-term regulation
had a positive and significant effect on the investment rate of regulated entities. The specific long-term regulation
design applied in Russia from 2008 to 2017 (either rate-of-return or price cap) had no effect on the investment
rate. These results are important for the introduction of changes in regulatory frameworks in developing
countries.
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