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Evaluating business models for microgrids: Interactions of technology and policy
Policy makers are increasingly focused on strategies to decentralize the electricity grid. We analyze the business
model for one mode of decentralization—microgrids—and quantify the economics for self-supply of electricity
and thermal energy and explicitly resolve technological as well as policy variables. We offer a tool, based on the
Distributed Energy Resources Customer Adoption Model (DER-CAM) modeling framework, that determines the
cost-minimal capacity and operation of distributed energy resources in a microgrid, and apply it in southern
California to three “iconic” microgrid types which represent typical commercial adopters: a large commercial
building, critical infrastructure, and campus. We find that optimal investment leads to some deployment of
renewables but that natural gas technologies underpin the most robust business cases—due in part to relatively
cheap gas and high electricity rates. This finding contrasts sharply with most policy advocacy, which has focused
on the potentials for decentralization of the grid to encourage deployment of renewables. Decentralization could
radically reduce customer energy costs, but without the right policy framework it could create large numbers of
small decentralized sources of gas-based carbon emissions that will be difficult to control if policy makers want
to achieve deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.
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