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Study on A Simple Model to Forecast the Electricity Demand under China’s New Normal Situation

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A simple model was built to predict the national and regional electricity demand by
sectors under China’s new normal situation. In the model, the data dimensionality reduction method
and the Grey model (GM(1,1)) were combined and adopted to disaggregate the national economic
growth rate into regional levels and forecast each region’s contribution rate to the national economic
growth and regional industrial structure. Then, a bottom–up accounting model that considered
the impacts of regional industrial structure transformation, regional energy eciency, and regional
household electric consumption was built to predict national and regional electric demand. Based
on the predicted values, this paper analyzed the spatial changes in electric demand, and our results
indicate the following. Firstly, the proposed model has high accuracy in national electricity demand
prediction: the relative error in 2017 and 2018 was 2.90% and 2.60%, respectively. Secondly, China’s
electric demand will not peak before 2025, and it is estimated to be between 7772.16 and 8458.85 billion
kW
h in 2025, which is an increase of 31.28–42.88% compared with the total electricity consumption
in 2016. The proportion of electricity demand in the mid-west regions will increase, while the eastern
region will continue to be the country’s load center. Thirdly, under China’s new normal, households
and the tertiary industry will be the main driving forces behind the increases in electric demand.
Lastly, the drop in China’s economy under the new normal will lead to a decline in the total electricity
demand, but it will not evidently change the electricity consumption share of the primary industry,
secondary industry, tertiary industry, and household sector.

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Ketersediaan

EJ20155

My Library

Tersedia

Informasi Detil

Judul Seri

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No. Panggil

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Penerbit

MDPI : ., 2019

Deskripsi Fisik

28 p.

Bahasa

English

ISBN/ISSN

-

Klasifikasi

NONE

Tipe Isi

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Tipe Media

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Tipe Pembawa

online resource

Edisi

Energies 2019, 12, 2220

Subyek

-

Info Detil Spesifik

Ejurnal

Pernyataan Tanggungjawab

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Versi lain/terkait

Lampiran Berkas

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