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Uncertainty in electricity markets from a semi-nonparametric approach
Deregulation in electricity markets has changed the conditions for maintaining long-term adequacy of
supply. Particularly in the last decade, security of supply has become a major issue for policymakers due
to a number of changes in technology, especially the introduction of renewables, where regulators have
introduced capacity mechanisms. In this paper, we focus on the use of two different capacity mechanisms:
procurement for long-term strategic reserves contracting, and centralized auctioning for capacity
contracts. We investigate the effect of uncertainty on the effectiveness of these two mechanisms in
maintaining a stable and sufficient supply of capacity. We use simulation to establish the behavior as the
level of uncertainty is increased. Our results suggest that a market's level of uncertainty plays an
important role in the effectiveness of these two interventions. The results raise questions about when it
is appropriate to introduce either of them.
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